First, an abstract for the impatient:

The frequently heard claim of climate science that the earth would have a mean temperature of -18°C without a ”natural greenhouse effect” is ubiquitous. It is, one hears, even taught in schools. Can this narrative hold what science claims? If one observes reality, well-founded skepticism about the theory might arise here and there.

More on this in my Climate Analysis Basics, which illuminates this question in a compact way.

If this model calculation would be correct, which just claims, without a so-called natural greenhouse effect the earth average temperature would be only -18°C, one has some difficulties to interpret measurable ground temperatures up to approx. +80°C in deserts near the equator. And for this one needs by no means greenhouse gases, it is sufficient to reduce the solar constant 1368 W/m² by the albedo of approx. 30% and to estimate roughly the possible maximum temperature with the Stefan-Boltzmann formula for the remaining 70%, which results in about +87°C when calculated. How is this compatible with the -18°C average theory which estimates a so called ”ice-ball-earth”?

Especially the oceans, whose water temperatures remain de facto identical day and night, prove that actually no point of the earth follows a theoretical temperature profile, which can be determined as result of a Stefan-Boltzmann calculation, which is based on a 24 hour period of the respective local radiation power from the sun.

How reliable is the assertion that the mean temperature would be -18°C without greenhouse gases? Could it be at all that here alleged 97% of the climate science are possibly even wrong?
Of course - or not - or maybe - or maybe not?

The facts compactly, see here: Basic Analysis Climate

Triggered by the discussion about the third runway for the Vienna Schwechat Airport, I started a personal analysis at the beginning of 2017, what this much-discussed CO2 is actually about. The result is the content of another, longer and more detailed analysis, which is available here as a pdf download document: Climate Crisis - Greenhouse Effect.

A peer reviwed article, which underlines my analysis was released by Gerhard Gerlich and R. D. Tscheuschner. It is called Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics and was published in 2009 at the International Journal of Modern Physics B, Vol. 23, No. 3 (2009) 275 - 364, the pdf-file can be downloaded free of charge.

I would be very pleased about reactions of visitors!